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BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan – Opposition leaders declared they had seized power in Kyrgyzstan on Wednesday, April 7, taking control of security headquarters, a state TV channel and other government buildings after clashes between police and protesters left dozens dead in this Central Asian nation that houses a key U.S. air base.

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who came to power in a similar popular uprising five years ago, was said to have fled to the southern city of Osh, and it was difficult to gauge how much of the impoverished, mountainous country the opposition controlled.

“The security service and the Interior Ministry … all of them are already under the management of new people,” Rosa Otunbayeva, a former foreign minister who the opposition leaders said would head the interim government, told the Russian-language Mir TV channel.

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The opposition has called for the closure of the U.S. air base in Manas outside the capital of Bishkek that serves as a key transit point for supplies essential to the war in nearby Afghanistan.

A senior U.S. military official says some flights were briefly diverted at the base, but as far as military officials in Washington know, the base was never closed. Scheduled troop movements in and out of Afghanistan were not affected. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because base operations are sensitive.

During the day, protesters who were called into the streets by opposition parties stormed government buildings in Bishkek and battled with police amid volleys of tear gas. Groups of elite officers then opened fire with live ammunition.

The Health Ministry said 40 people died and more than 400 were wounded. Opposition activist Toktoim Umetaliyeva said at least 100 people were killed by police gunfire.

Crowds of demonstrators took control of the state TV building and looted it, then marched toward the Interior Ministry, according to Associated Press reporters on the scene, before changing direction and attacking a national security building nearby. They were repelled by security forces loyal to Bakiyev.

After nightfall, the opposition and its supporters appeared to gain the upper hand. An AP reporter saw opposition leader Keneshbek Duishebayev sitting in the office of the chief of the National Security Agency, Kyrgyzstan’s successor to the Soviet KGB. Duishebayev issued orders on the phone to people he said were security agents, and he also gave orders to a uniformed special forces commando.

Duishebayev, the former interior minister, told the AP that “we have created units to restore order” on the streets. Many of the opposition leaders were once allies of Bakiyev, in some cases former ministers or diplomats.

Why is Kyrgyzstan Important?

Like its neighbors Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan has remained impoverished since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and has a history of stifling democratic institutions and human rights.

Kyrgyzstan is a predominantly Muslim country, but just as in Soviet times, it has remained secular. There has been little fear of the spread of Islamic fundamentalism as in other mostly Muslim regions of the former Soviet Union.

Since coming to power in 2005 amid street protests known as the Tulip Revolution, Bakiyev had ensured a measure of stability in the country of 5 million people, but the opposition says he has done so at the expense of democratic standards while enriching himself and his family. He gave his relatives, including his son, top government and economic posts and faced the same accusations of corruption and cronyism that led to the ouster of his predecessor, Askar Akayev.

In the past two years, authorities have clamped down on the media, and opposition activists say they have routinely been subjected to physical intimidation and targeted by politically motivated criminal investigations.

Many of the opposition forces had been in power with Bakiyev until Bakiyev purged his government of most opposition elements in October 2009. The purged individuals, most of whom belonged to the Social Democrats and United People’s Movement, joined forces to spearhead nationwide protests already under way due to the Central Asian country’s economic and electricity crisis.

Control of the military is critical to watch. The Kyrgyz military has yet to be deployed — even though Interior Ministry forces are out in droves against the protesters, who have seized and even burned down numerous government buildings. Using the military against protesters has been taboo since 2007, when Bakiyev came under international criticism for using excessive force after monthlong protests. That the military has not been deployed even as the government is possibly collapsing leaves open the question of who really is in charge of the military.

Protesters reportedly are seeking to break out of jail former Defense Minister Ismail Isakov, who led the military for years and still holds considerable influence over the much of it. If the opposition can gain control over the military, there will be little the Bakiyev government can do.

The Kyrgyz opposition already is attempting to organize a new government. It has settled on former Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva as its head. Otunbayeva is an interesting choice, as she holds quite a bit of influence over the former Tulip Revolution forces from her days in helping Bakiyev to power. She also was a Soviet diplomat and studied and worked in Moscow, meaning she most likely retains strong ties to Russia.

It also is critical to watch if this new opposition government has merged with other opposition forces, such as the Communist Party and Ak-Shumkar Party, both of which have heavy ties into Russia. Ak Shumkar leader Temir Sariev recently met Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Russia, suggesting Moscow could be nudging matters along in Kyrgyzstan.

Sources inside Kyrgyzstan said April 8 that several Chinese markets were targeted by rioters and burned during the recent unrest, while Americans and Russians were not similarly directly targeted. These are merely rumors but they fall in line with a trend of growing anti-Chinese sentiment among populations in Central Asia as the Chinese presence has gradually increased in the region. China’s reaction to the revolution in Kyrgyzstan has been negative — which is no surprise, since it shares a border with the country and is also worried about social unrest in its own northwestern region of Xinjiang, where riots broke out in July 2009. China has denounced the rioting and called for the quick return of calm and order. If rumors are true about ethnic Chinese in Kyrgyzstan being victims of looting and vandalism, they further explain China’s unhappiness with the situation. The question now for China is whether the Chinese will need to reconsider aspects of their Central Asia strategy based on the Kyrgyz situation. Also, if the new government in Kyrgyzstan is broadly more pro-Russian, how will China respond?

The interim government of Kyrgyzstan will issue a decree announcing April 10 as a national day of mourning for those killed in the recent riots across Kyrgyzstan, Kabar reported April 8. The decree will be signed by Roza Otunbayeva, head of the interim government.

Some History

A Central Asian country of incredible natural beauty and proud nomadic traditions, most of Kyrgyzstan was formally annexed to Russia in 1876. The Kyrgyz staged a major revolt against the Tsarist Empire in 1916 in which almost one-sixth of the Kyrgyz population was killed. Kyrgyzstan became a Soviet republic in 1936 and achieved independence in 1991 when the USSR dissolved. Nationwide demonstrations in the spring of 2005 resulted in the ouster of President Askar AKAEV, who had run the country since 1990. Subsequent presidential elections in July 2005 were won overwhelmingly by former prime minister Kurmanbek BAKIEV. The political opposition organized demonstrations in Bishkek in April, May, and November 2006 resulting in the adoption of a new constitution that transferred some of the president’s powers to parliament and the government. In December 2006, the Kyrgyzstani parliament voted to adopt new amendments, restoring some of the presidential powers lost in the November 2006 constitutional change. By late-September 2007, both previous versions of the constitution were declared illegal, and the country reverted to the AKAEV-era 2003 constitution, which was subsequently modified in a flawed referendum initiated by BAKIEV. The president then dissolved parliament, called for early elections, and gained control of the new parliament through his newly-created political party, Ak Jol, in December 2007 elections. In July 2009, after months of harassment against his opponents and media critics, BAKIEV won re-election in a presidential campaign that the international community deemed flawed. Just a few months later in October, BAKIEV engineered changes in the government structure that further consolidated his already considerable hold on power. Current concerns include: privatization of state-owned enterprises, negative trends in democracy and political freedoms, endemic corruption, improving interethnic relations, electricity generation, and combating terrorism.

Recent Background of Events Leading to the Uprising (from Stratfor)

• March 10: The Council of Kyrgyz Elders demanded the closure of the U.S. air base at Manas and called for an immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces from their country, the Voice of Russia Web site reported.
• March 10: Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev met with U.S. Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus in Bishkek and said that Kyrgyzstan will seek to assist in the rehabilitation of Afghanistan, the Trend news agency reported.
• March 11: Some parliamentarians expressed discontent over the news that Italian authorities issued a warrant for the arrest of Yevgeny Gurevich, a business associate of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s son, Maksim, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
• March 12: The Kyrgyz opposition group Ata-Meken (Fatherland) demanded that President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and his son resign, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
• March 17: About 3,000 demonstrators gathered in Kyrgyzstan’s capital, Bishkek, protesting an increase in heating and electricity tariffs and the reported oppression of political opposition, The Washington Post reported. Ata-Meken party leader Omurbek Tekebayev told the protesters to take control if the government does not listen, the Trend news agency reported.
• March 18: The Kyrgyz Defense Ministry released plans for the joint construction of an anti-terrorism training center with the United States, Xinhua reported. Sources said construction would begin a short time after the establishment of a joint military office. The center is backed with a start-up fund of $5 million from the United States.
• March 20: Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced that several ministries and agencies will be relocated to Osh over the next few years, with the Defense Ministry being the first, according to a AKIpress news agency report.
• March 23: About 30 people, including Temir Sariev, the leader of the opposition party Ak-Shumkar, were detained in Bishkek while protesting, Interfax reported.
• March 23: Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said the only two paths for his country’s foreign policy are becoming a “satellite” to a larger power or being independent in world politics, Interfax-AVN reported. Bakiyev said other countries have met Kyrgyzstan’s efforts to establish its international independence over the last year with a “respectful attitude.”
• March 26: Kyrgyz Defense Minister Baktybek Kalyyev said that a U.S.-funded new military training center in Batken will strengthen security in Kyrgyzstan and will not complicate their relations with Russia or Uzbekistan, Interfax reported.
• March 29: Russian and Kyrgyz leaders firmly intend to complete a draft agreement on setting up Russia’s unified military base on Kyrgyz territory, Collective Security Treaty Organization Secretary-General Nikolai Bordyuzha said, the AKIpress news agency reported.
• March 31: Members of the religious extremist organization Hezb-e Tahrir were detained in Kyrgyzstan’s Dzhalal-Abad region, the Web site 24.kg reported.
• April 1: A media rights advocate said that a Kyrgyz court had shut down Forum, which was an opposition newspaper, the Trend news agency reported.
• April 5: Authorities in Kyrgyzstan have offered discounts to those people deemed most affected by a recent hike in electricity and heating bills in an apparent bid to calm tensions, AP reported. Kyrgyz Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov ordered the government to pay half the power bills of households in remote and mountainous regions.

Stratfor Provides A Timeline of Protests

• April 6 (3:21 p.m. – all times are local): Protesters in Talas took over a regional government office during a rally, Reuters reported.
• April 6 (3:29 p.m.): Representatives of the Talas regional state administrator said they are holding talks with the “opposition,” according to reports from the Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg Web site.
• April 6 (5:02 p.m.): Kyrgyz Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov vowed to restore order in Talas and says the 100 police officers that he sent to the city should be sufficient to restore order, reported the AKIpress news agency.
• April 6 (5:10 p.m.): Kyrgyz Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov said he is ready to talk with the opposition, reported the AKIpress news agency.
• April 6 (5:41 p.m.): Law-enforcement agencies arrested participants and organizers of a protest in Talas, reported the AKIpress news agency.
• April 6 (6:26 p.m.): Kyrgyz Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov denied that a regional governor had been taken hostage in the town of Talas but confirmed that a group of opposition protesters was inside a local government office, Reuters reported.
• April 6 (6:42 p.m.): Reports come in that police in the country’s northwest have used rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse protesters, BBC reported.
• April 6 (8:06 p.m.): A rally resumed at the square in front of Talas’ regional administration building. Opposition leaders and activists made speeches, and Ferghana.ru claimed that special forces entered the city and young people prepared Molotov cocktails, the Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg Web site reported.
• April 6 (10:14 p.m.): The governor of the Talas region, who had been held by opposition protesters, was freed in a police operation, Reuters reported.
• April 6 (11:05 p.m.): The Interfax news agency reported that protesters again seized the building of the Talas regional administrator. According to human rights watchdogs, supporters of the opposition have also torched a police UAZ. There were also unconfirmed reports that the administration building is on fire.
• April 6 (2:36 a.m.): Kyrgyzstan’s Kabar news agency reported that 24 rioters in Talas were injured in clashes with police.
• April 7 (9:56 a.m.): Reuters reported that Internet access was blocked in most households around Bishkek and that police cordoned off the main road between Talas and Bishkek.
• April 7 (12:37 p.m.): Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin called for restraint in Kyrgyzstan, the Interfax news agency reported.
• April 7 (12:42 p.m.): At least 85 policemen were injured — four seriously — in the unrest April 6 in the northern Kyrgyz town of Talas, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov told a press conference April 7, according to the Xinhua news agency.
• April 7 (4:53 p.m.): Kyrgyz Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov told Russia’s ambassador in Bishkek that Russian media outlets are biased against the Kyrgyz government, RIA Novosti reported.
• April 7 (5:43 p.m.): Interior Minister Moldomusa Kongantiyev and First Vice Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov were taken hostage by opposition protesters in Talas, APA reported.
• April 7 (6 p.m.): RIA Novosti reported that Kyrgyz protesters seized the state television station building in Bishkek.
• April 7 (6:12 p.m.): Reports surfaced that Kyrgyz Interior Minister Molodmusa Kongantiyev has been killed, according to the Interfax news agency. A sate of emergency was called for Bishkek, Talas, Chui and Naryn.
• April 7 (6:35 p.m.): According to Russia’s Itar-Tass, law enforcement units in Kyrgyzstan only control of the Government House which houses the executive and President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. Reports came in that rioters began seizing weapons from government offices in Talas.
• April 7 (6:52 p.m.): Reports from Russia’s Interfax claimed that the Manas International Airport was closed to air traffic with only two more regional flights from Moscow and Osh to be allowed to land.
• April 7 (7:02 p.m.): Former Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev said he supported the protests in his country, Ekho Moskvy reported April 7.
• April 7 (7:12 p.m.): Internet service in Kyrgyzstan was halted, 24 News Agency reported.
• April 7 (7:16 p.m.): The Prosecutor General’s Office building burned in downtown Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, RIA Novosti reported April 7.
• April 7 (7:17 p.m.): The Kyrgyz opposition took control of regional centers and towns, such as Tokmok in the Chui Region and Karakol and Cholpon-Ata in the Issyk-Kul Region in northern Kyrgyzstan, Interfax reported April 7, citing employees of human rights organizations.
• April 7 (7:25 p.m.): Former Kyrgyz leader Askar Akayev said April 7 that current President Kurmanbek Bakiyev should step down, Reuters reported.
• April 7 (7:27 p.m.): Russia tightened security at its airbase in Kant following the events in Kyrgyzstan, according to Defense Ministry spokesman Lt. Col. Vladimir Drik.
• April 7 (7:35 p.m.): Kyrgyz Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov said Anvar Artykov and Duyshenbek Chotonov testified that the Ata-Meken and SDPK Parties were intent to seize power in Kyrgyzstan, the 24 News Agency reported.
• April 7 (7:45 p.m.): The Kyrgyz parliament reportedly debated calling in the army and declaring a state of emergency, AsiaNews reported.
• April 7 (7:46 p.m.): The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) alliance said it will not intervene to settle the political crisis in Kyrgyzstan, Interfax reported.
• April 7 (7:59 p.m.): Protesters in the capital of Kyrgyzstan stormed the parliament building and are occupying the first floor, RIA Novosti reported April 7. Former parliament speaker Omurbek Tekebayev reportedly was among the men who stormed the building.
• April 7 (8:05 p.m.): Kyrgyzstan was set to increase the number of U.S. military forces based in Bishkek, Gazeta.ru reported April 7, citing an Ekho Moskvy report. The Kyrgyz Parliament’s Director-General of Relations Anton Belyakov said the opposition had unconfirmed reports that after nightfall Kyrgyzstan would increase the number of U.S. military forces based in the capital city.
• April 7 (8:08 p.m.): Kyrgyzstan’s parliament is scheduled to meet April 8, Xinhua reported April 7. Sources told Xinhua that the legislature could hold an emergency session the night of April 7 if the president orders it.
• April 7 (8:08 p.m.): Kyrgyzstan’s state-run television resumed broadcasting at 5:33 p.m. local time Kyrgyz Television 1 reported.
• April 7 (8:14 p.m.): The Kyrgyz opposition discussed the possibility of negotiating with the government, Interfax reported.
• April 7 (8:16 p.m.): Kyrgyz opposition supporters dispersed peacefully from the building adjacent to the Government House area in Bishkek.
• April 7 (8:17 p.m.): RIA Novosti reported that the government and the opposition in Kyrgyzstan have agreed to hold talks in Bishkek, according to Kyrgyz State Councilor for Defense, Security and Law Enforcement Elmurza Satybaldiev.
• April 7 (8:23 p.m.): Former Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev has ruled out Russia’s involvement in Kyrgyz unrest, Gazeta reported April 7. He said Russia only wants good for the Kyrgyz citizens and aided the country through the economic downturn.
• April 7 (8:37 p.m.): Itar-Tass reported that Kyrgyz Internal Affairs Minister Molodmusa Kongantiyev was being held hostage in the Talas regional administration building, and his condition is serious.
• April 7 (8:40 p.m.): According to the Russian news service Itar-Tass, the location of Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev is still unknown. This report comes as Itar-Tass also reports that opposition supporters have left the parliament building, which they took over, and are moving toward the “White House,” the presidential office building in the capital of Bishkek.
• April 7 (8:54 p.m.): Around 300 protesters have seized an administration building in Kyrgyzstan’s southwestern Dzhalal-Abad region, 24.kg news agency reported.
• April 7 (9:06 p.m.): Kyrgyz security services deny that protesters in Bishkek took the State National Security Service building and released prisoners being held in Metropolitan Detention Center No. 1.
• April 7 (9:06 p.m.): Interfax reported that Kyrgyz Interior Minister Molodmusa Kongantiyev told a news conference that law enforcement has increased security in the country, Kyrgyzstan’s 24 News Agency reported. Kongantiyev said all political meetings in the country will be considered illegal and that unlawful activities by the opposition will be halted.
• April 7 (9:09 p.m.): RIA Novosti reported that looters have seized computers, documents, furniture and more in the Kyrgyz parliament building, according to Parliament Speaker Zainidin Kurmanov said.
• April 7 (9:19 p.m.): The Kyrgyz opposition has demanded the resignation of the current government and has agreed to negotiate with the head of the Kyrgyz government, one of the opposition leaders said on national television, Interfax reported April 7.
• April 7 (9:29 p.m.): People believed to be protesters entered the property of Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Interfax reported. No one appeared to be inside the home, said witnesses.
• April 7 (9:37 p.m.): Internet was restored in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, STRATFOR sources said.
• April 7 (9:37 p.m.): Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was taken directly to the presidential plane, which took off from Bishkek’s Manas International Airport around 8 p.m. local time, IA REGNUM reported, citing an unconfirmed source.
• April 7 (9:47 p.m.): An opposition leader called protesters off the streets in Kyrgyzstan and called for a people’s militia to control the situation, RIA Novosti reported.
• April 7 (9:51 p.m.): Former Speaker of the Kyrgyz Parliament Omurbek Tekebayev, speaking live on state television NTRC, said retired Police Col. Turat Madalbekov has been appointed security commander of Bishkek, Gazeta reported.
• April 7 (10:06 p.m.): Military vehicles were burned near government buildings and police and protesters exchanged gunfire, Gazeta reported. Government buildings’ fences also cracked in several places.
• April 7 (10:07 p.m.): Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s two aircraft waiting at the Manas airport were not used, NEGA reported. A source close to the Kyrgyz president told RIA Novosti that reports that Bakiyev left the country are untrue. NAGA also reported that the Kyrgyz army has not made any moves.

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